CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-04-01T23:45ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45486/-1
CME Note: Large partial halo CME seen in GOES CCOR-1 with brighter bulk mostly directed to the northwest with wider, fainter shock extending from the north to the southwest starting around 2026-04-01T23:45Z in association with a large-scale, strong filament eruption occurring near N28W25 around 2026-04-01T23:00Z with an associated long-duration C-class flare; the eruption is characterized by destabilizing filament channel starting as early as 22:30Z in SDO AIA 193 followed by a lift off of the filament channel best seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with bright post eruptive arcades and a broad, large dimming siganture seen best in SDO AIA 193. The core prominence structure and the widely opening field lines are also seen very well in GOES SUVI 284.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-04-03T15:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-03T23:00Z (-6.33h, +6.33h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
Prediction Method: ELEvo Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-03T23:00Z (+/- 6.33h) Predicted Arrival Speed: 730 +/- 144 km/s CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): 24.0 longitude, 19.5 latitude Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 48.5 initial CME speed: 1079.0 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2026-04-02T02:30Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50kLead Time: 6.00 hour(s)
Difference: -7.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Ruedisser (ASWO) on 2026-04-03T09:02Z
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